Author Archive for chris

They got tired of waiting…

Published by chris on July 19, 2008 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments

While waiting with Cherie to get her iPhone 3G today, I struck up conversation with the people around us in line.

The person in front of us was trading up from a five year old Palm OS powered Samsung i500.

“I love Palm OS, I’ve just gotten tired of waiting for something better than this…”

The i500 was a PalmOS 4.1 powered small and stylish clamshell. There has not been a smartphone like it on the market since.

Samsung had an amazing followup device that ran Palm OS 5.0 in a similar clamshell form factor, but they never shipped it. And for the customers who were drawn to this style of device, the the Treo line have been a poor and clunky substitute.

“When is Palm ever going to do anything new?”

The person in front of us waiting for an iPhone 3G was also a long time Palm OS user. He had upgraded to a Treo 680, but he was not happy with it.

“I’m a pharmacist and I need my Palm OS medical applications. I guess for now I will have to buy a Palm PDA, and I will carry around two devices until there are versions of those apps for the iPhone. I’ve given up hope of Palm coming out with anything new…”

It boggles my mind how much momentum and mindshare Palm has squandered over the past several years. While Palm’s been polishing up the same ancient operating system and device form factors, the installed base of fans have been giving up and moving on in droves.

I wonder how many tens or even hundreds of thousands of Palm OS devices around the world are being replaced this week, stuffed into drawers to be forgotten?

*sigh*

Some thoughts on iPhone Eve…

Published by chris on July 11, 2008 in Uncategorized. 2 Comments

In just a few hours, the 3G iPhone will be going on sale. Cherie and I will probably be heading to the local AT&T store early to try and get her one – she is dying to get off of her Razr and onto something smarter, and her iPhone envy has gotten so bad lately that I don’t think she can last another day without one.

Much more exciting to me than the 3G iPhone is the iPhone OS 2.0 software (and accompanying App Store), which will be released tomorrow as a free upgrade for all current iPhones.

The App Store is the key – and watching Apple deliver this has had me reminiscing around “what might have been” had I only been able to push my visions through at Palm and PalmSource.

What might have been…
From 2000 thru summer 2005 I was the Director of Competitive Analysis for Palm and then PalmSource (the OS spinoff company). And throughout my tenure, I had two consistent recommendations on what to focus on to maximize the success and competitive differentiation of Palm hardware and the Palm platform.

1) Build a great touchscreen phone with a 320×480 screen.
2) More importantly – build a great on-device application purchase experience, and provide the infrastructure to make it as easy as possible for both large and small developers to get rich.

Screen-Centric Hardware:
I lobbied endlessly for a phone built into the formfactor of Palm’s ultimate PDA – the Tungsten X. A Tungsten X phone would have had a 320×480 touch screen, a slim case with minimal buttons, bluetooth, WiFi, great multimedia, and more.

In other words, it would have looked a LOT like an iPhone. Only years sooner.

But… Every Palm licensee was convinced that no one would want a phone without a number pad or a keyboard.

Now, everyone in the universe if falling all over themselves to make touch screen phones that rip off the iPhone’s form. No one else besides Apple had the courage to try and do something different first.

*sigh*

The Application Experience:
Even more important to me than the hardware, I knew that the most compelling and sustainable competitive advantage that the Palm OS possessed was the vast wealth of amazing applications that existed for the platform. But the process of getting at these applications was vastly too complicated for most users, particularly as typical usage switched from pairing and syncing with a desktop PC towards cellular network connected devices. For all of these applications to matter, users would need a trivially easy “zen of Palm” way to find, download, install, and ultimately purchase them – all without ever leaving their mobile device.

And developers would need a fair and affordable way to publish their applications to the full potential audience of users, without needing to jump through different hoops for each device maker and cellular network operator.

I launched a project within PalmSource to try and solve these problems, and I managed to get my roadmap approved and the first stages funded. The PalmSource Installer was a great first step, but we only managed to get to stop 1.5 on a roadmap that had at least seven major technology and business iterations planned out.

If PalmSource hadn’t changed strategic direction (veering off towards oblivion it seems), by now every PalmOS device would be capable of easy one click download, installation, and purchase of thousands of apps.

The experience would have been very similar to the iPhone App Store, which is launching around the world today. But it would have been live years ago, and it would have actually done a lot more. For example, the roadmap that I was crafting would have not created a single monopoly store like Apple has launched, but rather it would have provided an enabling technology to allow a vast array of stores to operate.

And there would have been support for trial application, paid upgrades, and much more that Apple has not even contemplated for the iPhone. We even had plans to support a “tip jar” option to enable donationware.

All of this infrastructure and technology would have been baked into the OS (Palm OS 6.1 – which never shipped), and provided as a free upgrade supporting almost every Palm OS device that had at least Palm OS 3.5. No desktop computer would be required, but desktop support for Windows, Mac, and even Linux was planned as well.

You would even be able to download an app directly to your device wirelessly, and have the desktop components and conduits automatically install the next time you return to your desk. (This was actually possible with the Installer 1.5 that we did release…)

If this vision had panned out, there would have been a target market for developers of millions of devices, and users would have had access to thousands or even tens of thousands of applications, all just a click or two away from purchase. The market potential was huge!

The Application Supernova:
This is what I was working on five years ago. In a few hours, Apple will finally show the mobile industry a taste of where things should have been years ago.

And now all the analysts and journalists around the world are writing gushing articles about how “the future of phones will be touchscreens and apps”…

I guess I am just a bit ahead of my time. Ah, but what might have been!

I wrote the following in 2004, when I announced internally at PalmSource that I was leaving behind Competitive Analysis and Strategy to focus on the application installer / store roadmap full time:

One bright star on the horizon has always captivated me more than any other – and that has been the potential for the Palm Economy to really blossom into an amazing ecosystem where it is easy for users to find the perfect applications to make their devices truly their own; and for developers to be able to easily profit from the joy they bring into the lives of users.

This is truly the place where Palm OS has the potential to rise above all of our competitors. We still have more developers and better apps than any other mobile platform. But what we need to do now is make it vastly easier to get applications into the hands of users, and potentially even more important – we need to make it easier to get money into the pockets of developers.

If we do this right, I see the potential for a supernova in the Palm Economy that will leave Symbian and Microsoft and all the proprietary “smart” platforms in the dust.

The supernove looks set to explode in just a few hours, but instead of the Palm ecosystem blossoming it will be Apple’s iPhone.

It is bittersweet to think about what might have been had Palm(Source) managed to do it right years ago, but at least someone has ended up doing it. The doldrums that have paralyzed the mobile application universe are now about to be over.

At last!

The Death of “Unlimited”

Published by chris on June 29, 2008 in Uncategorized. 3 Comments

Mobile connectivity is essential to our life as technomads.

And over the past year and half, Sprint’s EVDO service has worked wonderfully for us. We have gotten broadband speed all over the country, and it has worked so well that we have even been able to cut the cable modem line while temporarily living here at Cherie’s house in Florida.

To connect we use a Novatel Merlin EX720 card, and to share the connection we use a small Cradlepoint CTR-350 WiFi router. This combination is small, portable, simple, power efficient, and it works amazingly well.

The reason that we chose Sprint last year was that it was the only nationwide carrier offering “unlimited” wireless data. At the time Verizon was also advertising “unlimited data”, but was attaching fine print defining unlimited as “5GB a month”.

(The New York Attorney General actually had to get involved to get Verizon to stop marketing 5GB as “unlimited”!!!)

Over the past year, Sprint won a lot of customers thanks to this “unlimited” policy, despite having inferior coverage. But the limits of “unlimited” have apparently now been reached.

Taking Verizon’s lead – Sprint is dropping the easy to understand and consumer friendly “unlimited” and is now implementing a 5GB cap.

The new deal from Spint:
Here are Sprint’s new terms, that we must either agree to or use as an excuse to cancel our two year contract:

Sprint reserves the right to limit throughput speeds or amount of data transferred and to deny, terminate, modify, or suspend service if usage exceeds 5gb per month in total or 300mb/month while off-network roaming.

*grrrrr*

How are we supposed to depend on our wireless connection for getting work done when it can be throttled down or canceled at any time without warning? The 300mb off-network roaming is particularly troubling, because there is not even a way to tell when you ARE roaming, and such roaming has always been free.

Sprint’s cap is a “soft cap” – there is no charge if you go over, but there is also no certainty that your connection will not be cut off either. Install a major OS update and you could find yourself cut off. Get a lot of work in to do, and you could find yourself unable to do it. Etc…

There is no longer ANY option for a real unlimited usage connection from Sprint, even if you would gladly pay more for it.

Verizon’s WORSE Deal:
Meanwhile, Verizon’s “soft cap” is growing painfully and outrageously hard. Rather than having a rarely enforced threat of service cancelation if you exceed 5GB of usage, Verizon is now rolling out “overage charges” of $250 per GB.

Let me repeat: TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS PER GIGABYTE!!!

In other words – the first 5GB you use are around $14 each, but the 6th you consume is suddenly 18x more expensive. This is the sort of gouging that you typically see con-men trying to pull after a natural disaster.

For an example of how easily it is to consume this much data – we have been watching the TV series Torchwood (purchased via iTunes). One episode is around 600MB – which via Verizon’s new pricing would cost us $2.00 to Apple, and $150 to Verizon to view.

Based on this math, to download the entire season will cost you nearly $2000!!! ($25 to Apple and $1810 to Verizon). This is one VERY expensive single click of the mouse!

Here are the details of Verizon’s new terms:

Effective June 22, 2008, Verizon has now changed how overage charges will affect those who exceed their allotted (5GB) usage per month. The new implementation provides for:

  • All plans are now subject to standardized $0.25/MB overage charge.
  • There is now a temporary “usage limit” cap of $250 for monthly overage fees.
  • All customers will only have three monthly bills subjected to a usage limit of $250. After the third bill to have the usage limit applied, there will no longer be a usage limit on the monthly bill, and the customer will be responsible to pay for all actual usage charges incurred on their monthly bill.
  • In addition to the changes in overage charges to existing 50MB and 5GB plans, a new plan is being made available to customers who have used up all their ‘usage limits’. This new “save plan” provides 10GB of data usage for $199.99/mo and the same $0.25/mb overage charge after the alloted data usage.

Insane.

AT&T’s Capped Plans:
In the past year, AT&T’s 3G HSDPA network has become a viable mobile data alternative to EVDO on Sprint and Verizon. But AT&T has a 5GB soft cap just like Sprint (and like Verizon used to):

The parties agree that AT&T has the right to impose additional charges if you use more than 5 gigabytes in a month. Prior to the imposition of any additional charges, AT&T shall provide you with notice and you shall have the right to terminate your service.

At the moment, AT&T is not charging for data over 5GB, and they are not enforcing their cap. But how long before they join Verizon in the gouging? I am guessing it is only a matter of time.

Alltel – The Last Bastion of Unlimited Data:
Alltel is the only nationwide wireless network that is still offering unlimited EVDO usage, for only $59/ month. But seeing as Alltel is in the process of being acquired by Verizon, my guess is that this offer will probably not be around for very much longer.

Even though the deal is likely not to last, Alltel is the only carrier with reasonable data plans. Because of this, we will probably soon cancel our contract with Sprint and switch to Alltel. At least we will have a few months before we have to cancel again and look for another alternative…

*sigh*

It looks as if the unlimited usage plans that have allowed wireless data in the US to thrive are soon to be a thing of the past. This is a shame. The wired Internet only took off once ISP’s stopped billing per hour and offered unlimited use. With usage caps and outrageous overage charges in place, users will grow very wary of actually making use of all these wonderful fast networks that are being deployed.

Why have fast 3G wireless data if you can’t actually make use of it?

Unlimited data. RIP.

Imagine… (why the mobile marketplace has failed)

Published by chris on March 4, 2008 in Uncategorized. 1 Comment

Imagine that you owned a small shop, and you wished to be able to accept Visa.

But to accept Visa, imagine that you had to agree to these terms…

  • Imagine that Visa insisted that you stopped accepting MasterCard and American Express.
  • Imagine that Visa even insisted you stop selling for cash.
  • Imagine that Visa forbid you from knowing your customer’s names, or from retaining any contact information.
  • Imagine that Visa forbid you from having any direct contact with your customers whatsoever.
  • Imagine that Visa handles (poorly) your customer’s product questions and support issues, and keeps them from speaking with you.
  • Imagine that Visa still holds you liable for any and all customer support issues that might arise.
  • Imagine that Visa insists you brand your product with www.visa.com and not your own URL.
  • Imagine that Visa prevents you from even linking to your website, support forums or online FAQ’s in your documentation.
  • Imagine that Visa prohibits you from doing any effective direct marketing of your store.
  • Imagine that Visa provides you a listing and placement you have no control over in the Visa Catalog.
  • Imagine that Visa places your competitor more prominently in the catalog than you.
  • Imagine that Visa offers your competitor substantially better financial terms than you have agreed to.

And then imagine that Visa demanded a 50% to 80% transaction fee, on top of all the demands above.

No one would ever accept this sort of insanity from Visa, yet this is in essence what mobile operators demand from application developers. The mobile application “storefronts” like Handango and Motricity have done little better in enabling an ecosystem to thrive.

Imagine instead what would happen if Visa took a reasonable small percentage, enabled the transaction, and then just GOT OUT OF THE WAY.

You don’t have to imagine. Visa has enabled a global ecosystem to thrive, and they process TRILLIONS of dollars in transactions.

If only the mobile operators understood… Mobile applications will struggle to be viable until someone invents the equivalent of Visa for mobile devices. It has to be simple, affordable, fair, and the carriers MUST be willing to let go of their need for control.

Remember: it is better to have a small pipeline tapping into a raging torrent of a river than it is to have rights to 80% of the water in a desert.

When Battleships Collide (Microsoft & Yahoo)

Published by chris on February 4, 2008 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments

The big tech industry news this week is Microsoft’s announced hostile takeover attempt of Yahoo for a staggering $44+ billion dollars.

Michael Mace has nailed the deeper implications of this deal (and how it relates to Google) in his analysis posted here. I couldn’t agree with his conclusion more:

Even the bid for Yahoo is driven by Microsoft’s desperate desire to copy and co-opt another company’s business model. That’s exactly what Yahoo doesn’t need. Rather than focused management that can pick out the most disruptive embers in Yahoo’s portfolio and fan them into bonfires, Yahoo is likely to get layers of well-meaning ROI analysis, a distracting flood of resources, political integration hassles, cultural conflicts, and a mandate to “concentrate on the core.”

The process will probably strangle Yahoo and distract Microsoft. I really hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s a very good chance that the merger will be the beginning of the end for both companies.

In some ways, rather than increasing competition, this deal may prove to be the best thing that ever happened to Google. Microsoft is crashing into Yahoo at ramming speed, and the collision will sink or cripple both of them – leaving Google the only battleship afloat.

I found the quotes from Microsoft featured in this article in the New York Times to be interesting:

What was most striking to me Friday was Microsoft’s own expectations for the deal. To put it bluntly, they are awfully low. When I spoke to Yusuf Mehdi, Microsoft’s senior vice president for strategic partnership — and the man who had been driving much of its online efforts in recent years — he never once talked about crushing the competition, or even catching up.

A Yahoo deal, he told me, “will be good for consumers who want another search engine, Web publishers who want another ad placement service, and syndicated advertisers” — who also want a choice other than Google. He continued: “Because of Google’s heavy volume and its algorithms, they are a very efficient buy. But people are rooting for a credible No. 2. We got lots of calls today from Web sites and others saying, ‘We’re with you.’ ”

Was he really saying that Microsoft would be content as a “credible No. 2?” I had a hard time believing it. But when I pushed him on this point, he reiterated it. “Online advertising revenues are going to be $80 billion within a couple of years,” he said. (They’re about $50 billion now.) “That is going to mean a tremendous opportunity to all players. There has to be a place for another credible player.”

I have NEVER seen Microsoft shoot so low. What sort of leader pays $44+ billion dollars to become a “credible number two” ?? This reeks of desperation.

Microsoft and Yahoo will both be paralyzed waiting for this deal close, one way or the other. If Microsoft does succeed, it will be at least a year before the merged company is working efficiently. And a year in Internet time might as well be an eternity.

Rather than improving their own technology to catch up with Google, Microsoft has handed Google another hundred miles of runway to get even further ahead.

Google’s Mobile X-Prize

Published by chris on November 12, 2007 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments

Google today announced $10 million in prizes to promote development for its new Android mobile platform. 

To put this in perspective – that is the same amount as the Ansari X-Prize that birthed Spaceship One, Virgin Galactic, hundreds of millions of dollars in private investment, and the emergent non-governmental space industry. 

Throwing that amount of money around can generate a LOT of motivation.

Cherie and I have been pondering things we should focus our time and energy on over the next few months – and guess what just jumped WAY up in contention… I am still thoroughly excited about iPhone application development, but you can be certain we’ll be brainstorming a few ideas for Android now.

The relatively feeble funding for the Buckminster Fuller Challenge provides an interesting contrast on our priorities as a society:

Launched in July, The Buckminster Fuller Challenge is an international design science competition which will award a prize of $100,000 to a single winning solution that has significant potential to solve humanity’s most pressing problems in the shortest possible time while enhancing the Earth’s ecological integrity.

Save the world for $100k, or build great next generation mobile applications for a slice of $10mil… Tough choice.

I think we’ll be pursuing choice B, but hopefully managing to save the world along the way. I’ve even got a few ideas already on how we might just be able to combine the two pursuits.

For the first time in a long time, the future of mobile application development is looking bright again. At last!


Here is Google’s amazingly dry video showing off Android and announcing the developer challenge…